Brexit and global growth

The IMF’s chief economist says that Britain’s vote to leave the EU has ‘thrown a spanner’ of the global recovery.

DAVOS/SWITZERLAND, 26JAN13 - Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC; World Economic Forum Foundation Board Member is seen during the Session 'The Global Economic Outlook' at the Annual Meeting 2013 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 26, 2013. Copyright by World Economic Forum Moritz Hager

After the global economy performed better than expected at the beginning of 2016, the fund has today slashed growth forecasts for the UK and the world, blaming the referendum result for ‘a substantial increase in economic, political, and institutional uncertainty, which is projected to have negative macroeconomic consequences.’

This is consistent with the IMF’s pre-Brexit prediction that a Leave vote would could trigger ‘a protracted period of heightened uncertainty’ and cause long-term damage across economic sectors.

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It’s not ‘absurd’ for EU citizens to feel secure in the UK

A constituent writes to the Foreign Secretary over his and Theresa May’s post-Brexit haggling with people’s lives

The following is a letter sent to Philip Hammond MP, the Foreign Secretary, from one of his constituents, after he echoed Theresa May in saying the right of EU citizens living in the UK to stay here was on the table in Brexit negotiations, and should not be guaranteed. 


Dear Mr Hammond,

I am writing, as your constituent, to express my serious concern over the comments you made to a number of media outlets on 4 July regarding the future status of the two million EU citizens currently residing in the UK.

Rather than committing yourself to a strong pro-European stance at this crucial time, you followed in the footsteps of Theresa May in stating that the rights of these EU citizens would be up for negotiation.

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Scottish economy would be damaged by Brexit, says new report

The Scottish economy faces the prospect of considerable damage if the UK votes to leave the EU.

Nicola Sturgeon discribes situation after brexit

According to a new commentary from the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute, ‘there is a high probability that output and growth in the Scottish economy will be damaged if the United Kingdom votes to leave the EU’. It added:

‘First, the likelihood would be that trading arrangements would be less favourable than in the EU.

Not only would actual and potential Scottish exporters have to overcome a potentially weaker competitive position due to lower labour and total factor productivity, they may also have to face the additional hurdle of less favourable trading arrangements.

Secondly, uncertainty attaching to a Brexit and the terms of any subsequent arrangements might worsen Scottish productivity growth through the negative effects on trade competition, inward investment and financial integration.’

Publishing the commentary, Brian Ashcroft, Emeritus Professor of Economics at the Institute, warned that leaving the EU could place more of a burden on Scottish companies and the economy. He explained:

‘At a time when there is increasing policy concern about Scotland’s productivity and growth performance a vote to leave the EU would place an unnecessary burden on Scottish companies and economic policy.’

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The UK has voted to leave the EU

12.00: That’s it for our referendum liveblog. We will, of course, continue to provide analysis of the major developments.

We can expect candidates for the Conservative leadership to start jostling for position over the weekend, and we’re likely to see a serious attempt to topple Jeremy Corbyn as well.

But while internal party politics will fill a lot of column inches over the next few days, the most important consideration – as Frances O’ Grady of the TUC has said – must be to shore up the economy and ensure that working people, and vulnerable communities, do not bear the brunt of this decision.

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